In May 1998 both India and Pakistan conducted nuclear tests. Within months, after nuclear tests, both neighbors signed the Lahore Declaration, a bilateral agreement, and a governance treaty. The treaty was signed on 21 February 1999, after a historic summit in Lahore, and ratified by the parliaments of both countries the same year. These two neighbors from making one of the most significant peace overtures and signing a bilateral treaty were fighting the world’s first and only hot conflict between two nuclear powers just weeks after signing the treaty. The Kargil war commenced in May and finished in end Jul 1999 with the evacuation of all intruders from the Kargil and Drass area.
Now fast forward to 05 Aug 2019 India abrogated Article 370 and 35A of the Indian constitution and decided to split the Jammu and Kashmir state into two union territories. A move that leads to increased rift and strain between India and China, a close ally of Pakistan. The President of the People’s Republic of ChinaMr. Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi informally met at Chennai from October 11-12, 2019, and agreed to “remain sensitive to each other’s concerns” so the relationship “will be a source of peace and stability in the world. Come Mar 2020 and China transgressed into Easter Laddakh after crossing LAC. We are now into the fourth month of the standoff.
In recent history, the most courageous and confident act by Indian political leadership (nuclear test and article 370 abrogation) has been met with systemic failure. We paid a heavy price during Kargil and this standoff is going to be longer and deadlier if things go worse.
When will we learn?
Why were we sleeping?
Who is to be blamed?
There are so many unanswered questions.
In my opinion, the reasons are the same as has been before be it 1962 or Kargil. It is intelligence failure. It is a diplomatic failure. It is our inability to engage a powerful and aggressive neighbour.
When we need every penny to kick start the economy, we will be busy shopping for more weapons and arms. Our soldiers will be fighting a well-entrenched enemy with better weapons, clothing, ration, infrastructure, and supply lines.
History repeats itself till we learn lessons.
