The first batch of French Rafale fighter aircraft arrived at the Airbase Ambala, in northern India. Although the event concerned only 05 tactical aircraft, the event was broadcasted live by all of the countries’ news media and was seen by nearly more than half a billion population. Is this media frenzy logical in the current context of international geopolitics, national politics, and economic conditions? Why?
The routes of the fighters and there final landing were closely followed to the point of arousing the most sensational information. The media would have us believe that Rafale fighter which just arrived have already managed to single-handedly defeated the Chinese Air Force and that of Pakistan. Never, in the history has just the delivery of 05 aircraft seen so much media coverage.
The social network (Twitter, WhatsApp, Instagram …) were not left behind. The takeoff, air to air refueling, arrival, and capabilities of the fighter has been shared and commented on millions of times. The media also dished out a detailed portrait of the pilots involved in a manner reserved for war heroes. What could justify all this?
My life as a retired air force fighter pilot was also sucked into the whirlwind of frenzy. I was invited as a defence analyst on 27 Jul 2020 to commemorate and present my views on national media covering the arrival of aircraft. Halfway through the program, I was wondering what made me say ‘yes’ to be part of such hype. A lot of questions raced through my mind while sharing my opinion with the country in the next half an hour. No doubt it was my first such appearance and despite the excitement, these questions kind of got stuck in my mind. Let me explain.
- Are these fighter aircraft really a game-changer for the Indian subcontinent. Indian Air Force is 700 aircraft strong force and how can just the addition of five out of 36 aircraft explain this frenzy.
- India is a nuclear weapon power nation and so are its neighbors namely China and Pakistan. India has a clear and unambiguous policy of “no first use’. It is also in the process of developing a nuclear triad for the delivery of nuclear weapons from land, sea, and air. Despite all these the nation still feels insecure and vulnerable. Does the 36 Rafale fighter ensure the safety and security of a country of the size of India?
- Meteor/SCALP/AESA radar/Western avionics may ensure victory in combat but can they win a war for India?
- The real casue behind the Chinese intrusion was the lack of prior intelligence and information when the build was taking place. This was the same reason for Kargil debacle also. Will the acquisition of weapon platforms resolve systemic problems?
The media, the armed forces, and the ruling political party conveniently forgot that war is a political means to an end. They are fought and won by humans through sheer grit and determination. Weapons and platforms are only deterrents and nothing more than that. It is the human behind the machine and the training which is imparted to them that leads to victory.
Geopolitical Events.
Due to recent clashes with China or earlier tension with Pakistan, a significant part of the Indian population has a desire to strengthen the military establishment. This has resulted in the hurried acquisition of platforms and weapon systems in the near past. Mere acquisition of Rafale aircraft can not tip the balance in favor of IAF and five aircraft delivered now even less. The media on the other hand has learned to exploit the popular craze to quickly ratify the new Rafale fighter aircraft as “Brahmastra”.
Politics.
Rafale aircraft deal was at the heart of the last election campaign in India which saw the opposition between Mr. Narendra Modi who had ordered the purchase and Mr. Rahul Gandhi firmly opposed the purchase. The election results were subsequently touted as a public referendum on the deal saw Mr. Modi and his political allies coming to power. Mr. Modi and his political party have become a symbol of military greatness and grandeur of the country especially after the popular ‘Balakot strike’.
Military Power.
The arrival of the aircraft in the present situation has been seen as a symbol of victory and national pride even though aircraft has not taken part in any combat. It is peculiar to note that Rafale designed in the 1980s remained unsold for export during the initial part and has seen only three international’s customers since 2015. The fighter has seen only limited operations in Libya, Mali, and Iraq without any actual opposition from the other side. It best can be termed a 4+ generation of aircraft. As it happens with all aircraft and weapons, very soon they will become obsolete. The adversaries will either develop or acquire more capable and deadlier weapons with longer range. Then what?
The Indian defense and aerospace industries have developed very capable and competitive weapons like ASTRA and NIRBHAY which are not only as capable but have a longer range than METEOR and STORM SHADOW missiles procured as part of the deal. Rafale once again can not deliver BRAHMOS supersonic air-to-surface missile and will have to be modified extensively at heavy cost before they can. These Indian missiles have been test-fired and integrated on various platforms like LCA, Su 30 MKI, MiG 29, and Jaguar aircraft. To integrate these missiles on Rafale aircraft would be extremely difficult due to the closed architecture system of Rafale and little insight that Indians have on it. Modern fighter aircraft have a life of more than 40 years and during lifetime to stay relevant have to undergo various upgrades or modifications. The aircraft would be irrelevant once the adversary develops or purchase 5th generation aircraft or better weapons in the coming years which in all cases they would. Once the Indian defense and aerospace industry develop better weapons, Rafale fighter would be unable to carry them and India would continue to depend on France for arming and upgrading these aircraft. For the coming 40 years, India would be dependent on France for spare and weapons.
Economic Power.
The current pandemic has caused an economic downturn and budget deficit. A strong economy and an increase in jobs should be the number one priority for the Indian government. The average world military expenditure which was 6% in the 1960s has steadily declined and is now close to 2%. While India still spends 2.8% of its GDP on the military. This does not include high ticket purchases like Rafale fighter. India for the first time has set a target for arms export to reach 5 billion USD by 2025, which today is less than 1 billion USD. India has been the biggest importer of weapons since independence and all Indian defense development programs have been marred with delays and cost overruns. The classic example quoted every time is LCA Tejas with decades of delay attached to it. Now give me a second. The total LCA project cost has been 1.6 billion USD as against the total cost of acquisition of 36 Rafale fighter would be 8 billion USD. The total market capitalization of M/s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited which is engaged in design, development, and production activity is less than 4 billion USD. It produces more than 40 aircraft per year. The cost of LCA is 60 million USD as against 400 million USD of Rafale. I am not saying everything is fine with the project or defense industry but the point is India could have better utilized this big budget to spur the economy and economic activities.
It has been a commercial victory for Dassault Aviation and economic conquest for France. The Indian Aerospace and Defense industry has once again been routed, decimated. The Indian economy and the people of India will pay a heavy price for their frenzy. Because if we keep celebrating such big purchases then our next generation will always think that this the only way to protect the border. They will forget that it is the man behind these machines who makes the difference. War is nothing but a continuation of politics by other means. But if we lose the economy, we lose the means to wage a war.
My only hope is that the excitement for the new toys will last for a few days. I do hope that political masters will take time before making another bigger contract. Celebrating such foreign procurement is a dangerous game and should be played with great care.
Political language is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable.
Jai Hind. Vande Matram.
