The current speculation is that an extension of about two weeks is under consideration. The Centre is looking at extending the lockdown beyond April 14 after many state governments and health experts suggested such a course of action on the ground that the coronavirus threat is still looming large.
The decision is not going to be simple where saving lives is most important while at the same time weighing the economic impact of lockdown vs economic impact of spread of virus COVID-19.
We do not have good data to predict. This is the situation of ‘Known unknown’. In my opinion, everyone is ‘satisficing’ making a decision that is ‘good enough’ given the very limited information available. We as intelligent species are not able to handle more ‘ifs’ and ‘then’ and thus merely taking a path that is not the optimum or best.
I suggest we should go for an iterative and incremental method to take advantage of what we have learnt so far about the virus, it’s spread and our preparedness to handle situation. Each phase should be adaptive management and goal-driven which will slowly and safely bring the life back to normal.
Thus I think we will be able to reduce uncertainty and simultaneously reward cities/villages/communities who are disciplined with more freedom and penalize those who are careless and unable to follow social distancing with longer ‘Lockdown’.
Your views?
