Brief respite due to SARS-COV-2 notwithstanding, increasing pollution is here to stay with us. Welcome to Global Warming and Climate Change! Human activity since the Industrial Revolution started, is the single important reason for the uncontrolled emission of Greenhouse Gases. Before we proceed any further, let’s go over the basics.
What is Global Warming (GW)? This is the rise in temperature of the earth’s surface, oceans, and atmosphere over thousands of years. However, the usage of coal due to the advent of industrialization hastened this rise. Since then, a 1°C rise has occurred. Another 1.5°C rise by 2050 is expected. By the end of this century, a 3 to 5 °C may occur if no action is taken to curb GG Emissions.
What is meant by Greenhouse Gas (GG) Emissions? Greenhouses gases are gases emitted by human activities like electricity usage in homes and industries, transportation using fuels, deforestation etc. Examples of these gases include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous dioxide, and a few others. These gases have the ability to absorb infrared radiation by trapping and holding heat in the atmosphere. The greenhouse effect is created when heat increases in the atmosphere, which leads to Global Warming.
Top GG Emitters – The top emitters of Greenhouse Gases are China, the US, EU, India, Russia, and Japan in that order.
However, if we calculate the per capita GG Emissions (as per our population), then India doesn’t figure in top 10. Surprisingly, it is the countries with large landmass and smaller populations like Australia and Canada who are doing more damage. EU, US, Russia, Japan, and Iran are not much behind. Another issue here is development. The developed countries for the last 150 years have been exploiting the earth’s resources on land and in water. They are now able to provide a decent standard of living to their citizens. It is now the turn of the poor and the developing countries to use the earth’s bounties for improving their living standards. Hence, their GG Emissions are likely to be more, and in commensurate with their population size. Another joker in the pack of GG Emissions are the group of MNCs which are exploiting the earth’s resources for ‘development’ but at huge profits for themselves. These are the oil and gas companies, the coal mine owners, the lumber industry and many others. They cannot afford to lose their profits. Herein lies the conflict in reducing GG Emissions.
What happens if we don’t reduce the GG Emissions?
It is feared that the GW will be hastened and there may be a rise of 1 to 1.5°C rise of temperature by 2050 worldwide. This would result in:-
- Many island countries like Maldives, Fiji Islands or portions of the Philippines may go underwater.
- Loss of flora, fauna, and corals. 90% of the animals, birds and aquatic life will be lost.
- Arctic and Antarctica sheets of ice will melt. Russian permafrost has begun melting. There is fear of newer disease-producing viruses to appear which were frozen thousands of years ago.
- Rising sea levels will flood the ports, coastal areas and mangroves in all but landlocked nations. Mass migration of population will occur.
- Agriculture will suffer due to higher temperatures. Already certain vegetables and fruit trees are now being planted in mountains that were earlier snow-covered.
- The industry will have to incur higher costs for inputs. Workers’ output will also reduce because of working in hot environments.
- Higher pollution will result in more respiratory and skin diseases.
- Water. In the first few decades, melting ice would give rise to sufficient water in rivers. Shrinking glaciers after a couple of decades would result in very little water for agriculture, industry and even drinking.
- Climate change has already shown periods of cloud bursts or very heavy rains followed by long dry spells. Cyclones, storms and lightning strikes are getting more frequent.
- Ocean currents, not only in the Atlantic but in other oceans may severely affect human life in many different ways.
- Health. Heat strokes/ exhaustion cases will increase. Longer summer will ensure longer periods for transmission of vector-related diseases like malaria, dengue, diarrheal diseases and others.
What is the UN doing?
Since 1987, concerned countries have been meeting at various venues. The last being at Paris in December 2015. It was signed by 196 parties (European Union was 1 party). The historic International Treaty on Climate Change, ITCC, called the Paris Climate Accord was signed by them on 12th Dec ’15. Their goal was to limit the GW to well below 1°C, preferably 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. To achieve this, the world has to be Carbon neutral by 2050. The GG Emissions have to come down drastically in each country, as soon as possible. To achieve this, the rich countries agreed to provide finance, technology and build capacity in poorer/ developing countries.
Nothing appears to have been done on the ground. It has been over 3 years, but many countries have not even prepared their ‘Proposal Document’ as to how they will proceed to reduce GG Emissions. The debate on total emissions or per capita emissions is yet inconclusive. Moreover, the biggest financing country and the 2nd biggest emitter of GG under President Trump walked out from the Accord in June 2017. He withdrew from financing or technology transfer. However, President Biden has agreed to rejoin and be part of the next UN-sponsored Climate Change talks at Glasgow, UK starting 31 October this year. Over 200 Scientists from all over the world have sounded Code Red. They fear that a rise of 1°C is likely to occur by 2033 if no major actions are not taken this year itself.
If the governments are not doing anything, what can we citizens do?
The governments of 200 plus countries have their own axes to grind. In the meantime, we are running out of options. People are dying due to frequent mini disasters. Larger ones await us, these are not very far away. People need to act by themselves to save their younger kins. Since the solutions will take a longer reading time, hence, they will be part of my next blog.
Maj Gen Krishan Chauhan is a second-generation army officer. He studied in Sainik School Kapurthala, graduated from IG Medical College, Shimla and did his MD from AFMC/Pune University. He has served in the Army Medical Corps for 36 years and retired as the Addl DGMS army. He is an avid marathon runner and a writer. He first wrote articles for children in The Young Chronicles. Later, he started writing his own blog as Genkris, on WordPress where over 50 articles on various subjects can be accessed.
